Maha Elections Part II !

So the drama is over and the curtains have fallen. Maharashtra assembly elections, which were expected to be a cliffhanger, have not disappointed. The build-up to the elections was extremely exciting with old allies BJP-Shiv Sena parting ways which was followed by another break-up between Congress-NCP. It was these break-ups which made it a five-way contest with MNS expected to be a beneficiary but the results were more than an upset as far as MNS is concerned, more on it later

The campaigning prior to the elections was ruthless with NaMo again coming to the rescue for BJP, Raj Thackeray leading the charge for MNS, generally quite Uddhav Thackeray going extra mile for Shiv Sena and NCP head Sharad Pawar going aggressive as a lot of personal comments were made by everyone in order to get a one-up on another. The results have been equally exciting with BJP just missing the clear majority mark by few seats. The takeaways are as follows:

BJP, as expected, was the biggest gainer winning 122 seats, managing almost three times the seats won by them in 2009 i.e. 46. One must note that this is almost equal to the number of seats they were planning to contest from had the alliance with Shiv Sena not broken! A cynic may put forward an argument that despite NaMo personally addressing rallies, they were not able to cross the half-way mark and that whatever they won was due to anti-incumbency factors etc. But hey, three-fold increase is nothing short of a spectacular achievement especially when they have emerged as the single largest party. And considering the fact that they contested from a number of those seats where their ally Shiv Sena used to contest from for years, no one can deny the fact that it was the Modi wave that got them through without being actively present in lot of these regions. So if anyone had any doubt, let me again make it very clear that the Modi wave is alive and kicking! I am saying this as a voter. Let’s face it, people are voting for NaMo and not for the individuals or the party (which could prove dangerous in long term). This is the best time to be in BJP, everything seems to be going right for them

As far as Congress is concerned, this election was just a repeat of the general elections with them winning as many seats (42) as they lost compared to the last elections in 2009 (82)! They say in Cricket, if two batsmen go out of form, the one with better footwork and who is technically sounder is likely to come back in form quicker compared to the other one as he has his basics in place. And whenever nothing is going your way, the least you could do is get your basics right! Considering the negative publicity that the Congress party has been subjected to due to poor performance when they were in power, they are not likely to come back in form anytime soon
Shiv Sena would have realized by now that breaking-up with BJP was a mistake. You should not challenge the strongest guy around, especially when others are not expected to come to your rescue. Though they did extremely well in getting their tally to 63 as compared to 44 in 2009, they would have been better off going into the elections with the BJP. BJP-SS combine’s tally could have been bigger than the sum total of their individual tally. If one goes by the latest news, the two parties are on the verge of sealing a deal and tie-up again to give a stable government in Maharashtra  

I am still not sure as to how NCP position themselves before the electorate vis-à-vis other parties in Maharashtra, but considering the quantum of fall that Congress has seen in Maharashtra, NCP did well in winning 41 seats

MNS’s performance was the biggest shocker. To be honest, I expected them to play a very critical role in the post election scenario in case no party was unable get the simple majority, which is the case this time around. But the unfortunate part is MNS is nowhere in the picture. Whereas MNS managed to win only one seat, MIM making its debut in Maharashtra won two. Though the making of blueprint for Maharashtra was a good initiative, I guess it was their marathi versus non-marathi pitch that worked against them. Why it worked against them when local parties across various states in India are doing the same thing, i.e. appealing to a certain community, successfully?  I think it was because they mixed the same pitch (appealing to a community) with the blueprint for Maharashtra i.e. development pitch (appealing to everyone). If they wanted to appeal to Marathi manoos, which they have all the right to, they should have stuck to places where they were strong. There was no point contesting from 230 seats. I strongly believe had they restricted themselves to locations where they felt they had a good change and had they played to their strengths, they would have done better and not seen their tally go down to one from thirteen

Overall, I believe the elections have been a great equalizer. BJP falling short of majority is a signal that the strong regional parties can challenge even the party for which everything is going right and that no one can take the voter for granted