Skipping technologies!

A popular show on TV has a game called ‘skipping stones’ where participants are supposed to run from one side to another by jumping/skipping stones ‘floating’ on water. The catch is that some of those stones are so light that hopping on them will lead to participants mostly falling into the water body, ending the game for them. Of course, it is next to impossible to differentiate between the actual stones and traps set up in the form of stones while one is on the run. So some decide to take it slow and be cautious while running but I have noticed that most of the winners run faster while hopping from one stone to another. So even if they jump onto a wrong stone, they will be quick enough to hop onto another and prevent falling in the water body. One can safely conclude that while playing this game one is likely to get better results running faster. It may not be the only way to win it but certainly the most adopted strategy

Now compare that with the overall technological scenario in any country. People talk about growing gradually in life as it is more sustainable but when it comes to technology the pace is anything but gradual (I want to admit at the outset that this is not an intellectually challenging observation about technology but just a reiteration of fact). As technologies become obsolete in no time, individuals/companies/countries are always on the lookout for the ‘next’ technology which will help them get to the other end (‘other end’ here implies technological progress), like in the skipping stones game. Similarly, if they decide to be slow and test every technology (stone) coming their way, they are likely to get outdone by those who are fast and skipping certain technology (stone) on their way to the other end. Few examples will put things into perspective. I am not sure whether people would even remember a luxury called telephone which was a rare thing even in metros few years back. People desired a telephone connection then. Switch to present: most of the people who yearned for a telephone skipped the telephone culture and jumped directly onto the mobile bandwagon. This was of course made possible by better technology, lower cost and good marketing which was lacking earlier. Similar trend is being seen in the world of online payment/transfer via PCs and laptops. One may quote various figures saying how the population of internet users has increased over the past few years allowing for more transactions online. But the fact remains that the growth in the usage of mobile phones for transacting seems to be outpacing PCs/Laptops. (I do not have figures to back up the claim, but interactions with people certainly suggest this trend). Download of such mobile apps could be one of the indicators. And with mobile phones costing even more than the PCs/Laptops, the manufactures/retailers do not seem to mind this trend! Pathetic internet connections at times and the efforts involved in logging in through PCs have also helped the cause!

Most exciting thing about this is that some of the most successful models are being challenged y these newer technologies. M-pesa, tried and tested model in certain parts of Africa is now being implemented in European countries, courtesy visionary telecom companies which see the writing on the wall. Now this does threaten the payment gateway companies which have been proving alternate payment services for a while. Especially a country like ours, which may boasts of a good number of card users, but such new technology disrupts the status quo for sure allowing people to skip directly to the M-pesa like system. This is not to indicate that the payment gateway companies will be impacted greatly by such newer tech as they are of utmost importance in certain cases and even they would have expected such change and prepared for it in advance (innovation or improvisation)

It will be interesting to see as to how and when we will get to the other end of the race. Difference between the game of skipping stones and skipping technologies: in the game, person running the fastest also hurts himself the most in case of a fall but in case of technologies one needs to be as fast as possible in order to stay relevant

Hobots!

I remember years back my auto-enthusiast friend discussing about the use of robots for assembling vehicles and how we were stunned on hearing it. Of course, they were being used for lot of other purposes even then but the point that I want to drive home is that usage of robots for ‘things earlier done by humans’ has always intrigued people in general. The tech enthusiasts have always welcomed such developments, at the same time you have had people criticizing the practice as such advancements tend to put lot of people out of work. What makes it even worse is the fact that the working class has been the most adversely affected by it (whether machine replacing man is a good thing or a bad thing is a debate for another day) However there are certain tasks that necessitate human touch and soft skills allowing humans to sustain that edge over the robots (it goes without saying that Robots at end of the day are human creations and it is a no brainer that humans are better off, however certain section of the working class is impacted negatively due to technology)

Now compare that with the following. I was in for a big shock when I read that some university is working on the technology that will allow humans to download skills to brains! I don’t want to dwell into the technical details as I don’t know it myself and this blog is just based on a one-liner that I read about the same! But as per the news, this will make it possible for an individual to download (learn) piano playing, kung fu, reducing mental stress, flying plane, speaking a new language etc. Of course not literally but let us assume for argument’s sake that we will be able to develop/download skills without much efforts. Just imagine the scale of impact such technology could have on mankind in general. If everyone manages to reduce mental stress then expenditure on stress reducing medicines will come down drastically! If learning a new language becomes easier then country like India where cost per person is low and language skills are good will see a sudden drop in outsourcing revenues as its competitive advantage (language skill) will no more remain. Positives could be: improved productivity due to less stress, reducing inequality between haves and have nots, better life overall. But certain apprehensions linger: lazy person who learns through the technology will compete with someone who would have put in efforts to perfect a skill. Skills which are in demand will encourage people to learn (download) the same which in turn will increase the labour supply resulting in a lower income. Our biggest attribute is the diversity vis-à-vis others in terms of our individual attributes! And that very attribute is challenged by this technology as lot of us will tend to do lot of things in the same manner almost like Human robots (Hobots!)

Above mentioned examples are too elementary and are not meant to question or support the DOT (Download Skills Technology as I like to call it!) which will have much profound impact on things in general. The functionality, applicability, success/failure of it remains to be seen. What I have written above is not even a layman’s perspective; it is just a stupid enquiry into the future