AAPraisal

It is appraisal time across companies, so I thought of doing one myself for AAP. I call it AAPraisal!

India’s population can be divided in three categories when it comes to AAP: One that supports AAP, second one that does not support AAP and the third one that used to support AAP when it made its debut in Delhi but lost faith afterwards. I fall into the third category. It was really nice to see a party come out of nowhere to try and make a positive difference to people’s lives. It was almost like witnessing a revolution. I would have ideally liked AAP to start on a small scale (Delhi was the perfect launch pad) and then graduate to national level. Being a conservative investor myself, I prefer a fixed return scheme over some risky instrument giving high returns and a better part of India also thinks on the same lines I guess. If you draw parallels with AAP, I was hoping after winning Delhi, they would take it easy and consistently grow like a fixed return scheme over a long period of time. But now I get a feeling that it was almost like winning a lottery! They won the lottery in the form of Delhi, became big overnight and lost everything in 49 days! They got too big for themselves. Clean slate and a uniting factor like ‘fight for a corruption free government’ worked in their favor to start with but trying to solve every problem on earth in their own unique manner and that too quickly failed them. After winning and then leaving Delhi in no time they decided to focus on general elections. It was more than disappointing for the people of Delhi who voted a new party like theirs to power hoping for a better government only to be left without government after 49 days.

With the Delhi fiasco to their credit (or discredit), the slate was not clean anymore. Now the destination was national elections. To attract attention statements were made against other parties, AK decided to fight the election himself from the same place where a national party’s prime ministerial candidate was contesting. They campaigned aggressively with people from all walks of life coming to support in their own capacity. Result: they could only win four seats! Even shocking was the fact that they did not win a single seat in their home ground Delhi! It was an outright rejection of a party which had just won the assembly elections in Delhi and hearts across India. Like their way of working, their results have also been quite extreme and all this happened in hardly few months’ time. Now they again plan to go to Delhi’s voters apologizing for exiting suddenly and requesting another mandate to come to power. It will be interesting to see Delhi’s response to their request and whether they will manage to comeback to power again. We will know soon if the saying ‘Subah ka bhoola shyam ko ghar aaye to use bhula nhi khete’ actually applies in politics!

Exit door for exit polls

We are an impatient lot (myself included). Even though the election results were due on 16th May, news channels were eagerly awaiting for the last phase of election to conclude so that they could start projecting number of seats that parties were likely to garner and who would form the next government. (It is as if all criminals and wrong-doers had gone on strike in India and there was nothing happening in the country worth reporting till the election results were out. Funnily, you would have noticed once the elections got over, channels started finding enough ‘regular news’ to report and manage to hold your attention even without any elections! They are so good at it!

Last few days any news channel that one switched to, one could see numbers getting flashed on TV screen indicating likely performance of parties at state and national level. Of course, the numbers differed from one channel to another, reasons being: tie-ups with various research companies having their own unique methodology, differences in sample type/size etc. One may try to be as neutral as possible but I am sure personal prejudices also would have played a role in at least interpreting the results. Despite all these limitations and past record of highly off-the-mark projections, we had experts on all channels screaming from the rooftops and explaining as to why the results (exit poll numbers) had come the way they had, what went right for the winners, what went wrong for the losers and how those fence sitters would play a vital role in formation of the government, mind you all this drama happened while we were still awaiting the ‘actual results!’

If there is one issue on which I agree with the congress party wholeheartedly, it is their decision to refrain from indulging in any kind of debate on exit polls. One may argue here saying they have been avoiding it as they were most likely to be on the losing side. But the fact remains that even during the last couple of elections, which I followed with great interest; they were never keen on discussing the exit poll numbers. Also please note that my reasons for disliking exit polls are very different from those of Congress party. I don’t like the idea of speculating when it comes to elections as it takes the fun out of it and Congress does not like it as they are mostly shown as a close/distant second! But now that as a party they have taken a stand, they will regret it later in case there are exit polls in future showing Congress on the winning side as they will not be in a position to participate in exit poll debates and capitalize on the same!

This time the situation was such that predicting an NDA was like stating the obvious! And still when it came to numbers, most of the channels got it wrong! I just feel we need to rid ourselves of this obsession with exit polls and wait for the ‘actual result’ as exit polls do not serve any purpose. Let there be no place for speculation in such matters, it just takes the excitement out of the whole exercise. And considering most of the projected poll numbers were poles apart from the actual numbers, it is about time we showed the exit door to the exit polls!

Election news

Days before the elections started, we have been hearing, listening, seeing, reading (literally getting attacked) from all possible sources as to why it is important to vote and why this time we will see people coming out in record breaking numbers to exercise their franchise. So it didn't come as a surprise when I (heard/saw/read) that we have seen our highest voter turnout ever! But then again we should see this number in relation to other numbers/facts mentioned below.
First shocker: election expenditure for 2014 elections increased by 131% to 3426 cr compared to 2009 elections! Of course, one may give an excuse saying inflation has played its part but one of the major reasons for such a hike has been the huge amount of money spent on creating awareness about voting and rightly so. Now, add to that money spent by political parties (figures unknown) to market their respective candidates and encourage their 'support base' to go out and vote to ensure their victory. I am sure the increase percentage here is much more than 131% vis-a-vis last general elections considering the fact that these parties have been giving a tough competition to the corporate world in terms of marketing blitzkrieg they have undertaken in order to sell their respective candidates and political agenda. Add to that vibrant news media coming out with series of programs/news articles throwing light on important election issues, enlightening and in turn pushing their readers/viewers to go out and vote. Finally, the fascinating contest involving leaders like Rahul Gandhi, Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal with their numerous rallies giving much required boost to their respective support base. So on every front we notice that the resources put in terms of efforts, money, manpower etc has jumped manifold to obtain one objective: to achieve higher turnout of voters compared to 2009 elections. And result: voter turnout percentage increased from 58.2% in 2009 to 66.4% this time around. So much incremental input for an incremental output of 8.2%! Though, I do agree even a small percent increase is a huge increase in terms of absolute numbers and I am not an expert on such matters but as a layman I still feel the 66.4% number is low considering the quantum of resources that have gone into creating awareness about voting.

Skipping technologies!

A popular show on TV has a game called ‘skipping stones’ where participants are supposed to run from one side to another by jumping/skipping stones ‘floating’ on water. The catch is that some of those stones are so light that hopping on them will lead to participants mostly falling into the water body, ending the game for them. Of course, it is next to impossible to differentiate between the actual stones and traps set up in the form of stones while one is on the run. So some decide to take it slow and be cautious while running but I have noticed that most of the winners run faster while hopping from one stone to another. So even if they jump onto a wrong stone, they will be quick enough to hop onto another and prevent falling in the water body. One can safely conclude that while playing this game one is likely to get better results running faster. It may not be the only way to win it but certainly the most adopted strategy

Now compare that with the overall technological scenario in any country. People talk about growing gradually in life as it is more sustainable but when it comes to technology the pace is anything but gradual (I want to admit at the outset that this is not an intellectually challenging observation about technology but just a reiteration of fact). As technologies become obsolete in no time, individuals/companies/countries are always on the lookout for the ‘next’ technology which will help them get to the other end (‘other end’ here implies technological progress), like in the skipping stones game. Similarly, if they decide to be slow and test every technology (stone) coming their way, they are likely to get outdone by those who are fast and skipping certain technology (stone) on their way to the other end. Few examples will put things into perspective. I am not sure whether people would even remember a luxury called telephone which was a rare thing even in metros few years back. People desired a telephone connection then. Switch to present: most of the people who yearned for a telephone skipped the telephone culture and jumped directly onto the mobile bandwagon. This was of course made possible by better technology, lower cost and good marketing which was lacking earlier. Similar trend is being seen in the world of online payment/transfer via PCs and laptops. One may quote various figures saying how the population of internet users has increased over the past few years allowing for more transactions online. But the fact remains that the growth in the usage of mobile phones for transacting seems to be outpacing PCs/Laptops. (I do not have figures to back up the claim, but interactions with people certainly suggest this trend). Download of such mobile apps could be one of the indicators. And with mobile phones costing even more than the PCs/Laptops, the manufactures/retailers do not seem to mind this trend! Pathetic internet connections at times and the efforts involved in logging in through PCs have also helped the cause!

Most exciting thing about this is that some of the most successful models are being challenged y these newer technologies. M-pesa, tried and tested model in certain parts of Africa is now being implemented in European countries, courtesy visionary telecom companies which see the writing on the wall. Now this does threaten the payment gateway companies which have been proving alternate payment services for a while. Especially a country like ours, which may boasts of a good number of card users, but such new technology disrupts the status quo for sure allowing people to skip directly to the M-pesa like system. This is not to indicate that the payment gateway companies will be impacted greatly by such newer tech as they are of utmost importance in certain cases and even they would have expected such change and prepared for it in advance (innovation or improvisation)

It will be interesting to see as to how and when we will get to the other end of the race. Difference between the game of skipping stones and skipping technologies: in the game, person running the fastest also hurts himself the most in case of a fall but in case of technologies one needs to be as fast as possible in order to stay relevant

Hobots!

I remember years back my auto-enthusiast friend discussing about the use of robots for assembling vehicles and how we were stunned on hearing it. Of course, they were being used for lot of other purposes even then but the point that I want to drive home is that usage of robots for ‘things earlier done by humans’ has always intrigued people in general. The tech enthusiasts have always welcomed such developments, at the same time you have had people criticizing the practice as such advancements tend to put lot of people out of work. What makes it even worse is the fact that the working class has been the most adversely affected by it (whether machine replacing man is a good thing or a bad thing is a debate for another day) However there are certain tasks that necessitate human touch and soft skills allowing humans to sustain that edge over the robots (it goes without saying that Robots at end of the day are human creations and it is a no brainer that humans are better off, however certain section of the working class is impacted negatively due to technology)

Now compare that with the following. I was in for a big shock when I read that some university is working on the technology that will allow humans to download skills to brains! I don’t want to dwell into the technical details as I don’t know it myself and this blog is just based on a one-liner that I read about the same! But as per the news, this will make it possible for an individual to download (learn) piano playing, kung fu, reducing mental stress, flying plane, speaking a new language etc. Of course not literally but let us assume for argument’s sake that we will be able to develop/download skills without much efforts. Just imagine the scale of impact such technology could have on mankind in general. If everyone manages to reduce mental stress then expenditure on stress reducing medicines will come down drastically! If learning a new language becomes easier then country like India where cost per person is low and language skills are good will see a sudden drop in outsourcing revenues as its competitive advantage (language skill) will no more remain. Positives could be: improved productivity due to less stress, reducing inequality between haves and have nots, better life overall. But certain apprehensions linger: lazy person who learns through the technology will compete with someone who would have put in efforts to perfect a skill. Skills which are in demand will encourage people to learn (download) the same which in turn will increase the labour supply resulting in a lower income. Our biggest attribute is the diversity vis-à-vis others in terms of our individual attributes! And that very attribute is challenged by this technology as lot of us will tend to do lot of things in the same manner almost like Human robots (Hobots!)

Above mentioned examples are too elementary and are not meant to question or support the DOT (Download Skills Technology as I like to call it!) which will have much profound impact on things in general. The functionality, applicability, success/failure of it remains to be seen. What I have written above is not even a layman’s perspective; it is just a stupid enquiry into the future

WhatsAAP!

There are things that elicit feelings of shock, awe and surprise at the same time. Couple of news that attracted global attention and inspired feelings mentioned above share some characteristics. Business news that made headlines was the $19 billion Whatsapp deal which made its cofounders Jan Koumiss and Brian Acton into billionaires. $19 billion by itself is a huge figure, add to that the fact that the company only started in the year 2009! Here is a story of someone who had a humble background, started on his own, understood his market, offered something user-friendly (that too cheap) and ended up making billions! Generally words 'cheap' and 'billions' don't fit in the same sentence but in case of some extraordinary achievements like these they do. (It is even a bigger achievement considering in India people don't even pay $1 per year; instead they uninstall the app every time $1 becomes due and then reinstall it!) It is just amazing to see how the app which was virtually free for end-users ended up making so much money for the makers. Of course, the value lies in the database of users, potential of capitalizing on the database etc. But the fact remains that as an end-user I am using one of the best apps for free.
The master stroke was to sell it at a time when its use was at peak. I can say this with confidence as an avid user of the app myself! This is not to say that its users will not increase anymore at the same rate, it will continue to attract new users. But the timing was really good, as of late some similar apps had begun providing an alternate to Whatsapp. So it was a good decision to sell it while it was still a 'unique app' rather than sell it at a time when it becomes 'one of the apps'. I don't think the deal will have any significant impact on me as a user of the app. Only time will tell though.
Now compare the app with the AAP! Launched as recently as late 2012 (though the ground work started some time back with team Anna) AAP captured the imagination of the country when it formed the government at Delhi with Congress supporting from outside. Again, it was started by a common man with a humble background, who understood his audience, had a solution in the form of corruption free India, sold his idea honestly and ended up becoming the chief minister! I am not sure if AAP has seen its peak or it is yet to come, but no one can deny the fact that AAP has found a following across all age groups and classes of people and it is a serious force to reckon with especially in the coming Lok Sabha elections. Companies toil for years reaching that $1 billion figure and then put in constant efforts sustaining it; Whatsapp took approximately five years to do that! Similarly political parties spend years convincing people why they will offer a better government than the existing one and still lose out in the end which results in another five year wait. But here is a party which took less than a couple of years to win a state election and become a serious threat for national parties.

It is election time!

So the dates are out! Largest democracy in the world will vote from 7th April-12th May (with results due on 16th May) to elect the new government. And it promises to be a nail-biter with both national parties; Congress as well as the BJP fighting for allies, dealing with internal party disputes, calling each other all kinds of names, and marketing their respective PM candidates through hoardings, banners, social media etc (perfect case study for learning integrated marketing communications)
Couple of things makes this election even more interesting. Firstly, the emergence of AAP which made a stylish debut in Delhi as BJP refused to form the government, Congress agreed to support the AAP government, and AAP accepted Congress’ support to form the government! It would have been a completely different ball game altogether had Delhi not happened. Secondly, the possibility of third front surfacing as the game changer (game spoiler for the national parties) and with as many as PM candidates as the number of parties, it will certainly add spice to the already spicy set-up! Variety is indeed the spice of life
Contest between two national parties Congress & BJP (UPA & NDA with their respective allies) plus two game changers (AAP & third front) is going to be like reading a suspense novel full of twists and turns. How boring it would be, if even ours was a two-party system! Diversity of our country with various interest groups and resultant existence of regional parties adds charm to the elections. Of course as an individual, one would prefer having fewer parties so that the possibility of one party getting a majority increases which leads to stable government. But hey, I like my food spicy!
Things that I am looking forward are AAP performance considering their meteoric rise, offbeat approach and attitude towards things in general. Also it will be interesting to see how and to what extent the Modi wave with a tremendous track record in Gujarat, large rallies and promising speeches converts into votes for BJP and how Rahul Gandhi's vision, discussions at school and college levels with a smaller audience, and long term outlook will translate to votes for his party.
Icing on the cake is the 'None of the above' option which is being introduced for the first time! Assuming a voter turnout of 55 percent, one would think the rest 45 percent weren't happy with any of candidates representing their constituency so there was no point voting for them. Going by that logic, there should be a higher turnout this time around as rather than sitting at home and saying no one is good, you can come out and convey the same by exercising your right to vote.  Considering the rate at which people are losing confidence in various political parties, NOTA Party i.e. 'None of the above' party may come out a winner!