Election news

Days before the elections started, we have been hearing, listening, seeing, reading (literally getting attacked) from all possible sources as to why it is important to vote and why this time we will see people coming out in record breaking numbers to exercise their franchise. So it didn't come as a surprise when I (heard/saw/read) that we have seen our highest voter turnout ever! But then again we should see this number in relation to other numbers/facts mentioned below.
First shocker: election expenditure for 2014 elections increased by 131% to 3426 cr compared to 2009 elections! Of course, one may give an excuse saying inflation has played its part but one of the major reasons for such a hike has been the huge amount of money spent on creating awareness about voting and rightly so. Now, add to that money spent by political parties (figures unknown) to market their respective candidates and encourage their 'support base' to go out and vote to ensure their victory. I am sure the increase percentage here is much more than 131% vis-a-vis last general elections considering the fact that these parties have been giving a tough competition to the corporate world in terms of marketing blitzkrieg they have undertaken in order to sell their respective candidates and political agenda. Add to that vibrant news media coming out with series of programs/news articles throwing light on important election issues, enlightening and in turn pushing their readers/viewers to go out and vote. Finally, the fascinating contest involving leaders like Rahul Gandhi, Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal with their numerous rallies giving much required boost to their respective support base. So on every front we notice that the resources put in terms of efforts, money, manpower etc has jumped manifold to obtain one objective: to achieve higher turnout of voters compared to 2009 elections. And result: voter turnout percentage increased from 58.2% in 2009 to 66.4% this time around. So much incremental input for an incremental output of 8.2%! Though, I do agree even a small percent increase is a huge increase in terms of absolute numbers and I am not an expert on such matters but as a layman I still feel the 66.4% number is low considering the quantum of resources that have gone into creating awareness about voting.

Skipping technologies!

A popular show on TV has a game called ‘skipping stones’ where participants are supposed to run from one side to another by jumping/skipping stones ‘floating’ on water. The catch is that some of those stones are so light that hopping on them will lead to participants mostly falling into the water body, ending the game for them. Of course, it is next to impossible to differentiate between the actual stones and traps set up in the form of stones while one is on the run. So some decide to take it slow and be cautious while running but I have noticed that most of the winners run faster while hopping from one stone to another. So even if they jump onto a wrong stone, they will be quick enough to hop onto another and prevent falling in the water body. One can safely conclude that while playing this game one is likely to get better results running faster. It may not be the only way to win it but certainly the most adopted strategy

Now compare that with the overall technological scenario in any country. People talk about growing gradually in life as it is more sustainable but when it comes to technology the pace is anything but gradual (I want to admit at the outset that this is not an intellectually challenging observation about technology but just a reiteration of fact). As technologies become obsolete in no time, individuals/companies/countries are always on the lookout for the ‘next’ technology which will help them get to the other end (‘other end’ here implies technological progress), like in the skipping stones game. Similarly, if they decide to be slow and test every technology (stone) coming their way, they are likely to get outdone by those who are fast and skipping certain technology (stone) on their way to the other end. Few examples will put things into perspective. I am not sure whether people would even remember a luxury called telephone which was a rare thing even in metros few years back. People desired a telephone connection then. Switch to present: most of the people who yearned for a telephone skipped the telephone culture and jumped directly onto the mobile bandwagon. This was of course made possible by better technology, lower cost and good marketing which was lacking earlier. Similar trend is being seen in the world of online payment/transfer via PCs and laptops. One may quote various figures saying how the population of internet users has increased over the past few years allowing for more transactions online. But the fact remains that the growth in the usage of mobile phones for transacting seems to be outpacing PCs/Laptops. (I do not have figures to back up the claim, but interactions with people certainly suggest this trend). Download of such mobile apps could be one of the indicators. And with mobile phones costing even more than the PCs/Laptops, the manufactures/retailers do not seem to mind this trend! Pathetic internet connections at times and the efforts involved in logging in through PCs have also helped the cause!

Most exciting thing about this is that some of the most successful models are being challenged y these newer technologies. M-pesa, tried and tested model in certain parts of Africa is now being implemented in European countries, courtesy visionary telecom companies which see the writing on the wall. Now this does threaten the payment gateway companies which have been proving alternate payment services for a while. Especially a country like ours, which may boasts of a good number of card users, but such new technology disrupts the status quo for sure allowing people to skip directly to the M-pesa like system. This is not to indicate that the payment gateway companies will be impacted greatly by such newer tech as they are of utmost importance in certain cases and even they would have expected such change and prepared for it in advance (innovation or improvisation)

It will be interesting to see as to how and when we will get to the other end of the race. Difference between the game of skipping stones and skipping technologies: in the game, person running the fastest also hurts himself the most in case of a fall but in case of technologies one needs to be as fast as possible in order to stay relevant

Hobots!

I remember years back my auto-enthusiast friend discussing about the use of robots for assembling vehicles and how we were stunned on hearing it. Of course, they were being used for lot of other purposes even then but the point that I want to drive home is that usage of robots for ‘things earlier done by humans’ has always intrigued people in general. The tech enthusiasts have always welcomed such developments, at the same time you have had people criticizing the practice as such advancements tend to put lot of people out of work. What makes it even worse is the fact that the working class has been the most adversely affected by it (whether machine replacing man is a good thing or a bad thing is a debate for another day) However there are certain tasks that necessitate human touch and soft skills allowing humans to sustain that edge over the robots (it goes without saying that Robots at end of the day are human creations and it is a no brainer that humans are better off, however certain section of the working class is impacted negatively due to technology)

Now compare that with the following. I was in for a big shock when I read that some university is working on the technology that will allow humans to download skills to brains! I don’t want to dwell into the technical details as I don’t know it myself and this blog is just based on a one-liner that I read about the same! But as per the news, this will make it possible for an individual to download (learn) piano playing, kung fu, reducing mental stress, flying plane, speaking a new language etc. Of course not literally but let us assume for argument’s sake that we will be able to develop/download skills without much efforts. Just imagine the scale of impact such technology could have on mankind in general. If everyone manages to reduce mental stress then expenditure on stress reducing medicines will come down drastically! If learning a new language becomes easier then country like India where cost per person is low and language skills are good will see a sudden drop in outsourcing revenues as its competitive advantage (language skill) will no more remain. Positives could be: improved productivity due to less stress, reducing inequality between haves and have nots, better life overall. But certain apprehensions linger: lazy person who learns through the technology will compete with someone who would have put in efforts to perfect a skill. Skills which are in demand will encourage people to learn (download) the same which in turn will increase the labour supply resulting in a lower income. Our biggest attribute is the diversity vis-à-vis others in terms of our individual attributes! And that very attribute is challenged by this technology as lot of us will tend to do lot of things in the same manner almost like Human robots (Hobots!)

Above mentioned examples are too elementary and are not meant to question or support the DOT (Download Skills Technology as I like to call it!) which will have much profound impact on things in general. The functionality, applicability, success/failure of it remains to be seen. What I have written above is not even a layman’s perspective; it is just a stupid enquiry into the future

WhatsAAP!

There are things that elicit feelings of shock, awe and surprise at the same time. Couple of news that attracted global attention and inspired feelings mentioned above share some characteristics. Business news that made headlines was the $19 billion Whatsapp deal which made its cofounders Jan Koumiss and Brian Acton into billionaires. $19 billion by itself is a huge figure, add to that the fact that the company only started in the year 2009! Here is a story of someone who had a humble background, started on his own, understood his market, offered something user-friendly (that too cheap) and ended up making billions! Generally words 'cheap' and 'billions' don't fit in the same sentence but in case of some extraordinary achievements like these they do. (It is even a bigger achievement considering in India people don't even pay $1 per year; instead they uninstall the app every time $1 becomes due and then reinstall it!) It is just amazing to see how the app which was virtually free for end-users ended up making so much money for the makers. Of course, the value lies in the database of users, potential of capitalizing on the database etc. But the fact remains that as an end-user I am using one of the best apps for free.
The master stroke was to sell it at a time when its use was at peak. I can say this with confidence as an avid user of the app myself! This is not to say that its users will not increase anymore at the same rate, it will continue to attract new users. But the timing was really good, as of late some similar apps had begun providing an alternate to Whatsapp. So it was a good decision to sell it while it was still a 'unique app' rather than sell it at a time when it becomes 'one of the apps'. I don't think the deal will have any significant impact on me as a user of the app. Only time will tell though.
Now compare the app with the AAP! Launched as recently as late 2012 (though the ground work started some time back with team Anna) AAP captured the imagination of the country when it formed the government at Delhi with Congress supporting from outside. Again, it was started by a common man with a humble background, who understood his audience, had a solution in the form of corruption free India, sold his idea honestly and ended up becoming the chief minister! I am not sure if AAP has seen its peak or it is yet to come, but no one can deny the fact that AAP has found a following across all age groups and classes of people and it is a serious force to reckon with especially in the coming Lok Sabha elections. Companies toil for years reaching that $1 billion figure and then put in constant efforts sustaining it; Whatsapp took approximately five years to do that! Similarly political parties spend years convincing people why they will offer a better government than the existing one and still lose out in the end which results in another five year wait. But here is a party which took less than a couple of years to win a state election and become a serious threat for national parties.

It is election time!

So the dates are out! Largest democracy in the world will vote from 7th April-12th May (with results due on 16th May) to elect the new government. And it promises to be a nail-biter with both national parties; Congress as well as the BJP fighting for allies, dealing with internal party disputes, calling each other all kinds of names, and marketing their respective PM candidates through hoardings, banners, social media etc (perfect case study for learning integrated marketing communications)
Couple of things makes this election even more interesting. Firstly, the emergence of AAP which made a stylish debut in Delhi as BJP refused to form the government, Congress agreed to support the AAP government, and AAP accepted Congress’ support to form the government! It would have been a completely different ball game altogether had Delhi not happened. Secondly, the possibility of third front surfacing as the game changer (game spoiler for the national parties) and with as many as PM candidates as the number of parties, it will certainly add spice to the already spicy set-up! Variety is indeed the spice of life
Contest between two national parties Congress & BJP (UPA & NDA with their respective allies) plus two game changers (AAP & third front) is going to be like reading a suspense novel full of twists and turns. How boring it would be, if even ours was a two-party system! Diversity of our country with various interest groups and resultant existence of regional parties adds charm to the elections. Of course as an individual, one would prefer having fewer parties so that the possibility of one party getting a majority increases which leads to stable government. But hey, I like my food spicy!
Things that I am looking forward are AAP performance considering their meteoric rise, offbeat approach and attitude towards things in general. Also it will be interesting to see how and to what extent the Modi wave with a tremendous track record in Gujarat, large rallies and promising speeches converts into votes for BJP and how Rahul Gandhi's vision, discussions at school and college levels with a smaller audience, and long term outlook will translate to votes for his party.
Icing on the cake is the 'None of the above' option which is being introduced for the first time! Assuming a voter turnout of 55 percent, one would think the rest 45 percent weren't happy with any of candidates representing their constituency so there was no point voting for them. Going by that logic, there should be a higher turnout this time around as rather than sitting at home and saying no one is good, you can come out and convey the same by exercising your right to vote.  Considering the rate at which people are losing confidence in various political parties, NOTA Party i.e. 'None of the above' party may come out a winner!

Mission made possible

I know I am running as late as the central railway train during monsoons so far as expressing my views on Mangalyaan is concerned. I was planning to write this for a long time but somehow never got down to write it. In Nov, 2013 ISRO became the 4th agency in the world to accomplish this feat. One would have expected people to be extremely praiseworthy of the same, and most of them were. But as always, you also had a group of people explaining as to why it was a waste of money. I am sure everyone is entitled to his opinion but I fail to understand why we criticize achievements like these. Total cost of the project is around 450 cr. The number is huge but pales in comparison to our defense budget of around 2 lacs cr plus. In percentage terms, cost of this mission is approx 0.23% of the defense budget!
I agree, such comparisons are unfair as country’s security is of prime importance and budgeting for country’s defense is always on the priority list (however, how much money should be spent on ammunition has been the topic of many debates). Logic being that a belligerent but sane entity will not try to harm you if it sees you as someone who is loaded with latest ammunition and capable of striking back. One will only attack those who are not prepared for it. It is amazing how countries spend on ammunition to avoid wars which will necessitate its usage! Despite everyone knowing the dangers of weapons’ usage, they are forced to spend on it as some rogue entity may not think twice about the consequences before attacking someone. So defense spending is thus justified. A businessman also would prefer doing business/investing in a country which is safe and protected. One more reason why people do not mind spending more on defense is because they want to feel safe and eliminate the fear factor. However, when it comes to spending money missions such as Mangalyaan, lot of people look at it as wasting money as they do not see themselves getting benefited from it. These are the same people who wish their children to become engineers one day without realizing those very engineers will then dream of working on such missions in future!
Like good defense shows India’s military strength, missions such as these help showcase India’s intellectual power and it should be encouraged in every way possible. One may argue those 450 cr could have been utilized for some other purpose, but we should appreciate the fact that at least it is being utilized for the purpose for which it is allotted and not being siphoned off like we see elsewhere! One should also consider the benefits that will accrue to us and future generations due to missions like these and stop being so narrow minded. Investing in future is not a bad thing after all.

Power forces at work

It was Alvin Toffler’s book (not sure Future Shock or The Third Wave) which explained the changes taking place in the power structure over the last few years. It mentions how power changed its form from force: when people used weapons in ancient times to force others into doing things they did not want to like vacating their homelands, giving away their valuable things etc. Though, it will be naive to say that it used to happen only in ancient times as even today we have examples like Iraq war where the force is being used but the only difference being that this time it was done to protect the interests of people at large with international support (debate for another day).
Then came a time when the society became more civilized. So force as a form of power was replaced by a more civilized form i.e. money which could buy almost everything under the sun. And money as a form of power has been used consistently to serve political and commercial interests everywhere. Typical example would be what we see during elections when a cash-rich political party would give freebies to influence people’s opinion leading to shifting of power in their favor. Also we have seen how certain countries have been allegedly involved in financing civil wars and unrest in under developed countries to get control of their natural resources. Money in these cases has just acted as another form of weapon leading to conflicts, corruption which in turn has only created problems for common man. Then came the age of information which leveled the playing field to a certain extent where even an individual without much resource got an opportunity to wield power through mediums such as internet, TV etc. Earlier somebody who had money had power and now information became equivalent to power. It was this information that has helped unearth scams in the last few years in India and countries around the world. Easy access to market information has enabled the poor farmer to get a higher price for his produce in turn eliminating the intermediary’s role and the power that he wielded. Social networking sites have only helped the cause by acting as a platform for sharing information.
People who were under the impression that they could control others using force or money have come under serious threat due to the rise of information as a new force of power. But the old forces of power i.e. force and money is in no mood to let information replace them that easily. I was very surprised when I saw both forms of power i.e. force and money trying hard to control the newest form of power i.e. information in their own unique ways. Just read somewhere that Iran is sponsoring the censorship of internet before the elections considering the role played by internet and specifically the networking sites in Arab spring: this is force at work in modern times which not only leads to a bad name for someone wielding it, at the same time it begets strong reaction in the form of protests and demonstrations. Money as I said is a civilized way of doing things and the only difference between using money and force as power is that one is an armed robber and the other is a robber who wears suit. Money power manages to manipulate the image and hide the real intentions of people doing it. Recently we saw when Saudi price alwalled bin talal bought a decent stake in twitter which in turn may allow him to control the information exchange taking place online. May be that is not the objective behind the deal may be it is purely as an investment but the chances of that are very slim considering how twitter played its role during Arab spring. Iran and Prince are doing the same thing: they are trying to control information but one is using force and the other is using money. Control of information in any way should be stopped but everyone is busy criticizing only Iran as it is using force and nobody is saying a word about the Saudi price as it is being done under the garb of investment. And what is even more amazing is to see that all three forms of power i.e. force, money, information are trying hard to outsmart each other. Hopefully, information will come out a winner.